# How the Government Consistently Reports Misleading Employment Numbers

How the Government Consistently Reports Misleading Employment Numbers

-23% unemployment rate?

Can you really depend on economic data reported by the government?  Well, if you look behind the scenes, the answer is no.  Every first Friday of the month, the government reports the previous month’s employment numbers.  In those reports you find out if the economy has created jobs or lost jobs.  US Bureau of Labor comes up with the initial numbers from the survey.  Then the government takes a look at the numbers and comes up with a second set of employment numbers.   It is called the birth/death adjustment.

That birth/date number is the “estimated” number of how many jobs were reportedly lost or gained that were missed in the survey.  They come up with this second part of the formula because the survey might miss some jobs.  Yes, this is a government estimate based on a hunch.  Riddle me this – can you count on government estimates in an election year?  Let’s take a look at May’s number.

The government reported a paltry 38,000 jobs created.  They also estimated that 224,000 jobs were created.  If you take that 224,000 estimated jobs away, the actually had a NET LOSS of -186,000.

In addition, this has been the trend of reported jobs over the last 4 months:

233,000 – February Jobs

186,000 – March Jobs

123,000 – April Jobs

38,000 – May Jobs

Trend going the wrong way?

Here is a look at reported jobs created graphically and below that are the estimated jobs that the government created out of thin air

FEB                MAR                  APRIL               MAY

 Total birth/death adjustment or “estimates” 129,000 64,000 233,000 224,000

February

• 233,000 jobs created -Government made up 129,000 leaving a net gain of 104,000 jobs

March

• 286,000 jobs created – Government made up 64,000 leaving a net gain of 224,000 jobs

April

• 133,000 jobs created – Government made up 233,000 leaving a net loss of -100,000 jobs

May

• 38,000 jobs created – Government made up 224,000 leaving a net loss of -186,000 jobs

February through May of 2016 only 142,000 jobs were created once you deduct the 650,000 “estimated jobs” that the Government created out of thin air.  Does that look like an economy that is working?  To add insult to injury, the government actually lowered the unemployment rate from 5% to 4.7%.  Of course, they fail to mention that 458,000 people fell out of the workforce and are not even being counted.

23% Unemployment Rate?

Shadowstats.com is a site that scrubs government data and reports more accurate numbers.  They have the unemployment rate close to 25%.  That is a far cry from 4.7%.

It makes you wonder……are we already in a recession given the real data?

• JT

Ding ding ding… Yes we are!